Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

An NAR practitioner survey2 shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.

Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply.

“Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.”

For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges.

The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

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NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, and is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2First-time buyer and distressed sales data are from the Realtor® Confidence Index; prior month first-time buyer data was revised due to a computational coding issue after the questionnaire was updated to obtain more specific breakouts.

3Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.

4The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

5Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for December will be released January 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for January 5; release times are 10 a.m. EST.

Courtesy of National Association of Realtors

Courtesy of National Association of Realtors
WASHINGTON, May 12, 2009

Improving the availability of credit and access to capital are essential to recovery in the real estate market. Addressing these challenges was the focus of the “Financing Real Estate for Tomorrow” session, part of the National Association of Realtors®’ daylong “Real Estate Summit: Advancing the U.S. Economy.”

“As the leading advocate for housing issues and homeownership, NAR knows that real estate is the road to economic recovery,” said NAR President-Elect Vicki Cox Golder. “It is vital for the health of both the residential and commercial real estate markets to improve the flow of credit, and we look forward to identifying paths toward a successful resolution of this current credit crisis.”

In his keynote address to the attendees, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan identified two major problems confronting a housing recovery and ultimately an economic recovery in the near-term – falling home prices and increased inventory. Falling home prices decrease homeowners’ equity, and when mortgage debt exceeds equity, defaults increase. To exacerbate the problem, increased inventory of unsold single-family homes continues to depress prices.

Greenspan’s remarks were followed by a panel discussion moderated by Jane Bryant Quinn, contributing editor for Newsweek. Members of the panel included Bruce Katz, vice president, Brookings Institution; Conrad Egan, president and CEO, National Housing Conference; Phil Bracken, executive vice president, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage; and Jeff DeBoer, president and CEO, The Real Estate Roundtable.

Panel participants emphasized the need to stabilize and provide liquidity to financing in both the residential and commercial real estate markets. Jerry Howard, president and chief executive officer of the National Association of Home Builders, reported seeing a significant reduction of available credit in land acquisition, development and construction. “There are no new homes being constructed right now,” said Howard. “Funding is vital to the health of the American housing market.”

“A sound and functioning commercial and multifamily real estate sector is critical to our country’s economic growth and development,” said NAR Treasurer Jim Helsel. “This sector now faces its worst liquidity challenge since the Great Depression, and we must address it to stem the threat of rising delinquencies and foreclosures.”

Michael Calhoun, president, Center for Responsible Lending, observed that restrictive lending isn’t the only challenge. “The market is being flooded with foreclosures, which is creating problems on the supply side,” said Calhoun. “We must address this excess supply before the real estate market can recover.”

Egan emphasized the fundamental importance of strong credit scores and personal savings on an individual level. “We need to get back to basics,” he said.

Courtesty of National Association of Realtors.
WASHINGTON, April 01, 2009

Pending home sales have edged up, hinting at a possible pickup of sales activity in coming months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 2.1 percent to 82.1 from a reading of 80.4 in January, but is 1.4 percent below February 2008 when it was 83.3.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market is continuing to underperform. “Pending home sales have a way to go for there to be a meaningful increase, but recent increases in shopping activity are hopeful indicators that we’ll see additional sales gains,” he said. “More buyers are getting into the market to take advantage of stimulus incentives and much improved housing affordability conditions, but it will take a few months before we could see this turn up in measurable sales contract activity.”

Also in February, NAR’s Housing Affordability Index2 rose to a new high.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 10.6 percent to 63.9 in February but is 11.2 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 14.5 percent to 83.1 and is 3.4 percent higher than February 2008. The index in the South rose 4.4 percent to 85.8 in February but is 0.1 percent below a year ago. In the West the index fell 13.5 percent to 89.6 and is 1.7 percent below February 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said home buyers are in an excellent position. “The drop in mortgage interest rates and home prices mean the buying power of a typical family has never been better,” he said. “If you have a good job and long-term plans, it’s unlikely that you’ll find a much better time to buy a home. This is especially true for first-time buyers who can qualify for an $8,000 tax credit this year, have a great selection of homes to choose from, and are in a favorable negotiating position.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose 0.9 percentage points to a record high of 173.5 in February from an upwardly revised index of 172.6 in January, and is 36.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI, a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.

A median-income family, earning $59,700, could afford a home costing $285,600 in February with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of that amount. The affordable price is considerably higher the median existing single-family home price in February, which was only $164,600.

“Obviously, potential home buyers need to be managing their existing debt effectively,” McMillan said. “A Realtor® can counsel you on what you may be able to afford given your personal financial situation. In some cases, buyers who want to build their future through homeownership may need to start reducing their debt and improving their credit score before entering the housing market.”

Last year at this time, the typical family could afford a home costing $265,600, which is $20,000 less than the current affordable price. “Homes in many areas are now selling for less than replacement construction costs – clearly this is an abnormal situation which will change once inventory is drawn down and supply and demand come closer into balance,” McMillan said.

Yun said he expects housing inventories to rise through early summer from a normal seasonal pattern of more sellers appearing in the spring. “But with the positive housing stimulus incentives now in place, we expect home sales to gain momentum in the second half of the year with first-time buyers absorbing a lot of the excess inventory,” he said. “Under these conditions, we should see price stabilization in most markets by the end of the year.”

# # # 1The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Each March, NAR Research conducts a review of PHSI seasonal adjustment factors and fine-tunes data for the past three years.

2The Housing Affordability Index is a relative index where a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home, taking into account the relationship between median home price, average effective interest rate for loans closed on existing homes, and median family income. The higher the index, the better housing affordability is for buyers.

The calculation assumes a downpayment of 20 percent and a qualifying ratio of 25 percent of gross income for mortgage principle and interest payments. The index is a general gauge with conditions varying widely around the country. Affordability conditions are lower for first-time buyers with smaller downpayments and less income.

Monthly publication of the index began in 1981 with annual data calculated back to 1970.

Existing-home sales for March will be released April 23; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on May 4.